The NFL preseason has officially begun, which means it’s time for me to place my preseason future bets. Futures are usually not profitable over time, but in small quantities, they can be extremely effective and a welcome addition to a betslip. This year, I found a few bets that caught my eye and narrowed the list down to the five with the most value.
1. Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts to Make the Playoffs (+128, FanDuel)
With the expected downturn in performance for the Titans, it is difficult to find 3 divisional losses for the Colts, even as they bring in a new quarterback. Speaking of the weak AFC South, guess who the Chiefs play this year? The AFC South. For the Colts, you can expect Jonathan Taylor to be the focal point of the offense, but unlike Derrick Henry, the pieces around the star RB are fantastic as well. With additions like Rodney McLeod, Stephon Gilmore, and Yannick Ngakoue, there is an entirely plausible scenario where this already stout Colts defense becomes one of the league’s best. Matt Ryan should be able to win games against Jacksonville unlike his predecessor, and the wide receiving core is not a lost cause. Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and Alec Pierce make up a young receiving trio with loads of potential. Simply put, this is a 9–8 team that improved in a weak division. As for the Chiefs, they play the aforementioned AFC South, plus their tough AFC West rivals. These teams play each other tight, so I expect about 3 wins from the Chiefs’ six divisional games. These 3 wins, combined with some lesser opponents like the Texans and Seahawks, should put the Chiefs in a comfortable position to make the playoffs. If there’s any more doubt, they have a $500 million quarterback and, since 2015, they’re 43–14 at home. I’ll take that.
2. Justin Herbert to Throw for at least 500 Yards in any Reg Season Game (+700, DraftKings)
This should be a fun one to follow. Last year, there was one 500 yard passing game in the entire league, and it came from Joe Burrow against the Baltimore Ravens late in the season. For 2022, Justin Herbert is a prime candidate to make his mark on the list of just 21 quarterbacks to accomplishment the feat. One qualification here is that he has the ability to throw for 500 yards. In his rookie year, he whipped the ball around SoFi Stadium, nearly breaking Andrew Luck’s rookie passing yard record. He threw for 330, 347, and 366 yards in games at home as a rookie, and topped those figures last year with a career-high 398 yards against the Browns. Herbert’s potential is limitless, especially at home, where the Chargers will have 8 games this year. Unlike in a passing-adverse locale such as Buffalo, for example, shootouts and high passing marks should be fairly easily set in L.A.. Google “Justin Herbert Highlights” if you don’t think he has the ability to throw for 500 yards, and see if you change your mind. The next part of this bet is whether Herbert will be in the situation to throw for 500 yards. The AFC West was chalk-full of shootouts last year, and with Russell Wilson joining the Broncos, I do not see that changing anytime soon. The Chargers also have games at Arizona and against the Rams, both of which I could see being offense-heavy. Once Herbert gets going, there’s no stopping him. All it takes is one game, and with two years of experience under Herbert’s belt, this could be the year he nabs a 500-yard game.
3. Travis Etienne — AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year (+4000, FanDuel)
Travis Etienne is an unusual case. After his record-setting career at Clemson, he was drafted by Urban Meyer and co. in the 1st round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He scored touchdowns in 46 of his 55 collegiate games — an FBS record — and picked up ACC Player of the Year honors twice. In the preseason last year, he suffered a Lisfranc ligament tear that kept him out for the entire season. He’s been a “winner” of the Jaguars’ training camp thus far, and with a checkdown-heavy quarterback like Trevor Lawrence, Etienne should have substantial opportunities to make his case for this award. The big question mark of course, is James Robinson. He tore his achilles in week 16 last year, leaving doubts about his status for the start of the season. However, he was not placed on the PUP list to start camp. Although a shared backfield will inevitably be a negative for Etienne, especially when compared to possible CPOTY candidates like Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey, Etienne should be able to takeover a majority of the touches due to his increased upside in the passing game. Trevor Lawrence’s checkdown rate last year was a league-high 11.3%, with second place being Mike Glennon at 9.8%. Lawrence and Etienne connected plenty at Clemson, and I expect them to do the same in Jacksonville.
4. San Francisco 49ers u7.5 Regular Season Wins (+380, FanDuel)
Right now, the standard over/under wins number for the 49ers is set at 9.5, heavily juiced to the over. Instead of betting under on 9.5, I’d rather take a chance on 7.5. With a rookie quarterback, the books are projecting a slight drop-off in performance, but in my opinion, it’s not quite enough. The 49ers have a habit of bottoming out and never really hovering in that 9–10 win area where the books project them. Since 2003, San Francisco has never lost in the wild card or divisional round of the playoffs. They either miss the playoffs or go quite far into the tournament. Because of this trend and the addition of Trey Lance, I really don’t see the value in the number 9.5 and would rather take an alternate under at 7.5. 6.5 is also enticing, but there’s too much talent on that team for me to say they’re going 6–11. 7–10 is completely plausible, especially in the tough NFC West.
5. Mike Williams — Most Regular Season Receiving Yards (+4000, Caesars)
For our second 40–1 longshot, I opted to go with the most receiving yards proposition. The favorites, Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson, are so highly priced (sitting at 8–1 on Caesars), that a longshot makes sense here. With a capable quarterback and hopefully a clean bill of health, I really think Mike Williams could move into the upper echelon of receivers in the NFL. He has shown flashes across his years in the league but could never string together a full season. Part of that has to do with the Chargers being, well, the Chargers, plus a handful of injuries. With a new $20 million a year contract, Justin Herbert, and a defensive that should be able to get the ball back into Herbert’s hands, the potential is there for Williams. His top 3 games in terms of receiving yards were set last year, and he’s poised for another breakout in 2022.
