As I’m writing this, the holy Champions League has commenced its 69th edition with the first set of group stage matches. Soon to follow suit is the Europa League, set for Thursday action, and the relatively new Europa Conference League. However, this marks the final year for these tournaments in their current format. Come next season, they will undergo a full transition into a Swiss system — a change that I am looking forward to tremendously. This alteration should (on paper, at least) deliver more intriguing matchups, and the dedicated matchweeks for each tournament add a fun touch. Amidst these changes, one particular development piques my interest — the four additional Champions League spots. The allocation for them is as follows:
- One place will go to the club ranked third in the championship of the association in fifth position in the UEFA national association ranking. (So, third place in France this year will automatically qualify for the 24/25 UCL group stage)
- One place will be awarded to a domestic champion by extending from four to five the number of clubs qualifying via the so-called “Champions Path”.
- The final two places will go to the associations with the best collective performance by their clubs in the previous season (total number of points obtained divided by the number of participating clubs).
(via @FootRankings)
Although we do see UEFA coefficient play into almost every facet of European qualification, there is usually a lag of a year. For example, the allocation based on UEFA country ranking is already decided and is as follows:
The timeframe in question spans over five years, excluding the current season. Interestingly, these new last two coveted spots use a one-year coefficient, without any lag. What this means is that these nations are currently vying not only for European glory, but also for these two additional Champions League berths. So, who would have been the recipients of these spots in previous years?
Last year, England and Italy would have taken the extra spots. However, these can easily flip — remember, England vs. Italy was the matchup in every European final this past season. That probably won’t happen again! In 2021/22, we saw the Netherlands excel in Europa Conference League (Feyenoord in the final, Vitesse in the Round of 16), leading to a #2 1-year association ranking. With how qualification has taken course this year, it unfortunately seems like we will not have a Romania or Netherlands-esque party crasher this season. Those spoilers occur, however, due to the calculation method. The total points gathered is divided by the number of teams. Romania had only 3 teams in Europe in 2005/06, but two of them finished first in their groups for the UEFA Cup, leading to the high association ranking. I wish this could happen again, but qualifying did not shake out that way. I blame Twente.
For the 2024/25 spots, it unfortunately appears that it will be down to England, Germany, Italy and Spain. FootRankings on Twitter has been updating this almost immediately after every European set of matches.
The lesson here? Even if a group is decided, there is more on the line for these teams and nations than you may think. Every single win will make an impact on who receives these last spots! Just another thing to look out for as we begin this European season. Follow FootRankings on Twitter, as well. They’re amazing. While I’m at it, I might as well throw my predictions down here (and a team to watch in each competition):
Champions League: Man City
Team to Watch: Feyenoord
Europa League: Brighton
Team to Watch: Union St Gilloise
Conference League: Fiorentina
Team to Watch: KÍ Klaksvik (There was really only one possible choice here.)
