With an (albeit small) sample size of the Premier League season, I am now ready to dive into the world of Premier League betting. I usually hold off for the first few weeks of the season — as I have this year — but I feel now is the right time to hop into the English top tier. My model still needs a few more weeks of data, so these bets are just based off FBRef, Opta, and other data sources available on the internet (plus vibes, of course). I’ve been researching other leagues as well, so look out for potentially EFL League One and Keuken Kampioen Divisie articles… Let’s get right into it:
1. Luton Town Draw No Bet @ Chelsea (+1080, FanDuel)
Despite the odds being stacked against Luton, I find the number inflated. One game into its Premier League voyage, Luton is still mostly unknown. Yes, they looked leaky vs. Brighton, but who doesn’t? Brighton is a great squad, potentially a top 4 team in the league, so I’m not taking much from their performance at the Amex. Luton showcased some decent attacking, with solid chances created by Carlton Morris and a promising debut from Ryan Giles. When you’re betting a +1080 like this, you’re not expecting much. I project this closer to +700, so I’m taking a flyer in the case Rob Edwards’ squad can muscle out a victory. The draw no bet odds are more favorable than the ML in my opinion (in this instance), as you’re protecting against a tie without paying up too much. If you do like Chelsea in this game, though, and would prefer a safer bet, take a look at Nico Jackson to score. He’s first in shots, pressures, pressures in the attacking 3rd, total runs, and runs into the box for Chelsea. He’s leading the entire league in big chances missed. He has to make one eventually, and Luton at home is a good bet for him to do just that. Nevertheless, at this massive number, I’ll be siding with the Hatters.
2. Everton-Wolves Both Teams to Score: No (-105, DraftKings)
With both teams yet to secure a single point this season, I’m not expecting fireworks here. Wolves’ struggles away from Molineux are clear, as they haven’t scored in their last four away games. Likewise, Everton has seen 7 of their last 10 home games end with one team failing to score. The departure of Daniel Podence simply adds to Wolves’ offensive woes, a team that was already the worst offensive team in the league last year with a staggeringly low 0.97 xG per 90 minutes. Podence contributed to 16 of their 40 goals last season, and I truly don’t see where those goals are going to be made up. They could be in real relegation danger this season if they fail to take points from games like these. Everton, too, has failed to impress so far, and the eye test continues to show uninspired football. They have created chances this year, but I could see them getting blanked, as well. I wouldn’t hate a bet on a scoreless draw!
3. Brighton 1H ML vs. West Ham (+100, Caesars)
Brighton is categorically better than the Hammers, so I’m backing the Seagulls at home. Yes, I’m a Brighton fan, but the statistics back up this bet as well. First-half goal scoring is the Seagulls specialty. At home, excluding the Everton disaster, they have failed to score in the first half just once since February. West Ham’s promising start this season might not translate well away from the London Stadium. The Chelsea match was promising, but I genuinely think Brighton is minimum two tiers ahead of Chelsea at the moment. The Enciso injury will undoubtedly hurt Brighton, as he was arguably the best player on the pitch against Wolves; however, there is enough attacking talent on the squad for Brighton to get ahead early and keep the lead. Even if West Ham finds the net, I’m confident in Brighton’s ability to fight back.
4. Burnley vs. Aston Villa o2.5 goals (-120, Caesars)
Burnley’s evolving approach under Vincent Kompany, coupled with Aston Villa’s odd stretch to start the season, should make this an interesting one. Burnley has had more than 2 weeks to prep for this match and will come ready to play. This game should seem goals. The sample size for Burnley is one game vs. Man City, and I’m not sure if the market knows how to price them yet. I’m looking forward to watching Zeki Amdouni play against a real team, and I think he may have success facing this Villa defense. This game could end 3–0 to Villa, 2–1 to Burnley, or 2–2 and I wouldn’t be shocked.
5. Alexander Isak o1.5 Shots on Target (+155, BetRivers)
This is a fun one. Liverpool last year had the highest opponent percentage of shots that were on target at 42.1%, and Isak has been on fire recently. Liverpool has conceded multiple shots on target to forwards consistently over the past year, so I think this is worth a bet at plus money — especially considering Newcastle is at home. This seems like an inspired Newcastle side, and I expect them to make a statement against Liverpool. I wouldn’t advise a bet on Newcastle, but this is a sneaky way to back them while also having some protection if Liverpool opens the game up.
Good luck betting this week! May all your bets hit!
