Break from the Premier League: An EFL League One Gem to Bet Big on Saturday
While many leagues are taking a breather this international break, including the Premier League, the world of club football never sleeps. My focus on League One continues through the break, and although only two games remain on the schedule for Saturday, I will be betting one of them. I see an edge in this Exeter match, and for what it’s worth, I’m leaning Carlisle in the other one (but won’t be betting it). While it might be just one pick, and it’s not the most creative one, there is value on a side at St James Park.
Exeter City ML vs. Leyton Orient (-131, SuperBook)
Exeter has lit up the league thus far, leading the pack through six games with 4 wins and a draw. The most impressive difference I’ve seen this year versus last is in their exceptional defense, having conceded a mere two goals in those six matches. The opponents have been relatively weak, raising questions about how their performances will translate against stronger opponents later in the season; however, they won’t be tested by a top team this weekend.
Newly-promoted Leyton Orient has struggled so far in the league, allowing 11 goals. Their pressing tactics (13.4 passes per defensive action, according to Opta), have failed to translate into success in the third tier. Exeter should be able to capitalize upon this weakness, as Brentford loanee Ryan Levitt proved he could slice up a heavy press against Burton Albion last weekend, scoring a 75' winner in a game the Grecians controlled from start to finish.
What’s scary about Exeter is that they’re currently underperforming their expected metrics, per FootyStats, meaning positive regression may be on the way. Their rapid and direct style of play is poised to pose significant challenges to the O’s, and I see this game as a complete mismatch. It’s an ideal situation for Exeter to exploit Leyton on the wings and wreak havoc.
Especially at home, Exeter should be able to control this match. I’m not sure how Leyton Orient will get on the scoresheet, as their build-up play will likely not be effective against the Grecians’ stout defense. I project this closer to -175, so I’m firing on it at -131.
