After a suboptimal performance on Matchday 3 (2-3, -1.21u), I'm back with some best bets for the upcoming fifth matchday of the season, which marks the return of Premier League action after the international break. This week presents a prime opportunity to capitalize on potentially fading some overvalued teams that may still be sleeping from the break. This one’s short and sweet — I was a bit rushed to get this out. Apologies in advance for the lack of depth/stats, but I am still confident in these plays.
1. Wolves +1.25 vs. Liverpool (-112, BetRivers)
Despite Liverpool’s impressive performance against Villa, I’m fading the Reds at Molineux. This line is quite generous for a team that is outperforming their metrics and coming off an international break with several players in action. Trent Alexander-Arnold’s likely absence is a significant factor, as the injuries continue to stockpile for Klopp’s men. The red cards have skewed their statistics, but their defense remains suspect as usual. It was a tight decision between the +1.25, +1, and moneyline options, but I’m playing it a little bit conservative here with the goal and a quarter.
2. Tottenham-Sheffield United Both Teams to Score: Yes (-107, BetRivers)
Sheffield United has struggled so far in the Premier League, but the team has found its footing offensively. On the road at Tottenham, I see them getting a goal. I’m not sure they can keep Ange’s hot Tottenham in check on the other side of the pitch, so this is the safe bet for this match — and my favorite for the matchweek.
3. Luton Town +0.5 @ Fulham (+130, BetRivers)
Saturday is the day… Luton Town will finally get their first point on the road at Fulham. Fulham has looked quite poor this season (as expected). If you get rid of a strange opening day win against Everton, the numbers are truly horrid. Their defense has been chaotic and poor, meanwhile the attack has not recovered from the loss of Mitrovic. Rob Edwards and Luton will be wise with their tactics, as I think they see an opportunity going into this match against a weak side. Retaining Palhinha is a good move for Fulham, but it won’t save them from the Hatters’ clinical performance on Saturday.
Okay, maybe that was a little aggressive. But I do like Luton getting the half a goal here.
4. Aston Villa ML vs. Crystal Palace (-108, BetRivers)
Villa may have lost big against Liverpool, which tempers my expectations for them this season. However, I still like Unai Emery’s side to get all three points against Palace. . Villa’s offense has created the second-highest open-play expected goals (xG) this season, trailing only Brighton. Although Palace’s defense has looked just as solid this season, I think they will struggle against Emery’s system. With that said, if Roy Hodgson proves me wrong, so be it. I just think this Villa attack will prove to be explosive at home.
5. Brentford +1 @ Newcastle (-111, SuperBook)
Brentford’s back-and-forth draw with Bournemouth showcased their ability to create scoring opportunities, even if they struggled to convert them. Bryan Mbeumo bailed them out with a 90' + 3' goal to take a point away even in the subpar performance. Thomas Frank’s side in general has impressed so far, as they are coping well without Ivan Toney. On the other hand, Newcastle under Eddie Howe is facing growing concerns. Their recent performances have been lackluster, and their top 3 aspirations are slowly dwindling. The attack, led by Almirón, is underperforming, and Isak’s finishing has been inconsistent. I think a margin will be difficult for Newcastle to come by, so I’m landing on the Bees getting a goal.
Last matchday: 2–3, -1.21u
